Getting these up early while I’m thinking about it, I know it’s hard to believe, but I do have OTHER things happening on Mon/Tue that might interfere.
This thread is for the Presidential election, my plan is to start marking wins as soon as they are called, sorted by time zone.
Some states are going to take longer than others. Polls generally close at 8 PM local time, but they can’t start counting early/mail in votes until after the polls close.
Wisconsin in particular has an interesting system where ballots are collected by MUNICIPALITY, not precinct, they have over 1,800 ballot counting locations and don’t report until ALL 1,800 are in.
https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2024/10/22/wisconsin-voters-election-milwaukee-security-denier
Currently 232 EC votes from Blue States:
4+19+10+7+3+3+4+10+11 +4+14+28+4+3+13+54+12 +10+5+8+6
93 EC votes from Battleground States:
10+16+15+16+19+11+6
Which leaves 213 EC votes in Red States.
9+6+6+6+8+6+10+5+3+7 +3+40+30+11+8+17+9+11 +4+3+4+4+3
270 to Win.
Online map here!
8 PM Eastern / 5 PM Pacific
Puerto Rico -
United States Virgin Islands -
(D 7 EC Votes) Connecticut -
(D 3) Delaware -
(D 3) District of Columbia -
(R 30) Florida - Partialy Eastern
(BG 16) Georgia -
(R 11) Indiana - Partialy Eastern
(R 8) Kentucky - Partialy Eastern
(D 4) Maine - Proportional
(D 10) Maryland -
(D 11) Massachusetts -
(BG 15) Michigan - Partialy Eastern
(D 4) New Hampshire - Dixville Notch at 12 AM Eastern.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_midnight_voting
(D 14) New Jersey -
(D 28) New York -
(BG 16) North Carolina -
(R 17) Ohio -
(BG 19) Pennsylvania -
(D 4) Rhode Island -
(R 9) South Carolina -
(R 11) Tennessee - Partialy Eastern
(D 3) Vermont -
(D 13) Virginia -
(R 4) West Virginia -2 AM Eastern / 11 PM Pacific
(D - 4 EC votes) Hawaii -9 PM Eastern / 6 PM Pacific
(R 9 EC Votes) Alabama -
(R 6) Arkansas -
(D 19) Illinois -
(R 6) Iowa -
(R 6) Kansas - Partly Central time
(R 8) Louisiana -
(D 10) Minnesota -
(R 6) Mississippi -
(R 10) Missouri -
(R 5) Nebraska - Proportional Partly Central time
(R 3) North Dakota - Partly Central time
(R 7) Oklahoma -
(R 3) South Dakota - Partly Central time
(R 40) Texas - Partly Central time
(BG 10) Wisconsin -1 - 2 AM Eastern / 10 - 11 PM Pacific
(R 3 EC Votes) Alaska -11 PM Eastern / 8 PM Pacific
(D 54 EC Votes) California -
(D 12) Washington -10 PM Eastern / 7 PM Pacific
(BG 11 EC Votes) Arizona -
(D 10) Colorado -
(R 4) Idaho - Partly Mountain Time
(R 4) Montana -
(BG 6) Nevada - Partly Mountain Time
(D 5) New Mexico -
(D 8) Oregon - Partly Mountain Time
(D 6) Utah -
(R 3) Wyoming -
Here we go! Last run through the polls before the election!
Arizona - Trump +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada - Trump +1 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/Georgia - Toss-Up - Trump +1 to +2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/North Carolina - Trump +2 to +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/Pennsylvania - Toss-Up Harris +1/+2 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/Michigan - Toss-Up Tie, Harris +1 to Trump +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin - Toss-Up, Harris +1/+3 to Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Plotted on the map:
Advantage is with Trump in this scenario.
Assuming he takes Georgia, 2020 was an anomaly in my mind, GA has gone Republican in every other election since 1996, that gives Trump 264.
Which means if Harris loses ANY other state, she’s done. She has to sweep PA, MI and WI to hit 274.
If the disaffected Arab vote in MI is enough to flip it, plus a Trump win in Georgia, that puts him at 279 to Harris 259. A scarily likely scenario.
My prediction is still Harris takes the popular vote, Trump the EC. I hate it here.
Trump hasn’t won a popular vote yet, so that’s a good call!
Honestly, with all the news showing how poll herding has been happening, I think it’s quite likely she sweeps the swing states. I’m less nervous now than I was a few days ago.
Harris rally live with Oprah and Lady Gaga https://www.youtube.com/live/HUbZ1vD9ChY
What a year it’s been here in the politics channel. I’m still here. Exhausted.
I will be voting tomorrow in person at my polling place before work.
Good for you! We just got the email at work “Hey, do your civic duty, if you need time off to vote, ask your manager.”
Of course, I’m vote by mail, ballot’s been in since 10/24.
My favorite take on this comes from James Carville:
“I’m gonna sleep soundly tonight. Have a couple of bourbons, maybe a gummy or two, but yeah. Gonna sleep soundly tonight on her chances to win this thing.”
Any predictions on what musk / xitter’s role in all this will be?
They can basically call states for republicans early.
Musk will likely be promoting anything claiming a Trump win, but I don’t think X has their own election coverage, do they?
That’s kind of what I mean. They don’t have their own formal coverage, but they can manipulate the prevalence of different narratives.
If officials refuse to certify whatever states, having the perceived support of the public can make all the difference.
When you should know
"Near-complete election results are expected from Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan on Tuesday night, but only partial results from Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona, Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told reporters in a Monday afternoon briefing,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Dillon predicted additional results from Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be available earlier in the day Wednesday, with Arizona and Nevada trickling in the rest of the week.”
Said Dillon: “We’re going to continue to see new votes being reported for many days after Election Day. We believe this race is going to be incredibly close, so we may not know the results of this election for several days.”
Appreciate you putting this together!
Just listened to Selzer break down her methodology in clear, simple terms. I’m starting to think the polling error this cycle is pretty big, and Harris is going to win handily.
I’ve been thinking about this too.
I’ve heard a lot of commentary about how polling has addressed the shortcomings of recent election cycles and that its more or less all fixed now. I do wonder though, there seems to be a heap of things that are very difficult to account for.
For example, who’s actually going to vote vs just intending to vote. For example the garbage thing has motivated a lot of people to get it done.
Another is the late break. I think for a lot of people that just don’t pay attention to politics, if you ask them 2 weeks ago they just haven’t really thought about it - their answers are precooked from last cycle. As the big day comes around and people think about candidates, lots of traditional republicans voters will make a different choice.
Also just generally with polls is the type of person that actually completes polls. Most people ain’t got time for that.
Of course I understand pollsters try to control for these things but as these problems stack up its easy to see how there can be some surprises.
God I hope so… The #1 problem with polling has been trying to determine who is or is not a “likely voter”.
We’re seeing that in PA. 22 recent polls, 18 “Likely Voter” polls, meanwhile 100,000 new voters casting ballots early. New voters aren’t counted as “likely”.
