It really does look like Ukraine has gotten an edge here - it was crazy seeing all those burning refineries this month. That has to hurt the Russians. And those videos of the drone strikes on the logistic lines are also crazy. There is no way that Russia can keep this up for long - those long range strikes are systematically destroying key industry and those strikes in the back of the front lines will also have quite the effect. I can imagine a situation where the front lines will run out of ammunition and collapse - without fuel, trucks can’t drive. And when those trucks are destroyed by drones, you can’t deliver what’s needed to the front.
It’s a very sad and cruel thing to say, but it’s just so sad Ukraine cannot bomb the shit out of Russia for very long, as at some point Russia has to beg for mercy and ask for peace. And more likely the war would stop. It’s cruel because in saying that, I don’t consider human lives (meaning Ukrainians, obviously) as Russia targets civilians daily. Plus, the military are mostly humans too. I just so much want to see the world where either Russia pays fucking reparations for centuries, or it is just destroyed to pieces. With all migrants leaving, and Russians simply enjoying their civil war, poverty, and the rest of Russia.
It’s kind of like this right now, people just haven’t noticed. When the war ends, Russia will be in shambles. They have broken their military might and destroyed the old soviet stockpiles. The black sea fleet does not exist anymore. Their air force is gone. They have no tanks left. They have taken 1.3 million casualties. Nearly all oil refineries were bombed together with a lot of the other oil infrastructure. Key factories are gone. Millions of people have fled the country.
And then there are the things they did at the start of the war: Does anybody really think that they will be able to lease modern civilian aircrafts after the war after having stolen hundreds of them? Will Europe really start to buy russian gas again after having found other suppliers that do not threaten them and having ramped up renewables? Will international companies really go back after having had all their current business stolen?
I’m maybe more pessimistic than you, but I think money overrules ethics in many cases. International companies will go back, their investments will be smaller and more careful, but if there’s profit to be made, they will go. Some European countries will go back to Russian gas too, it’s much cheaper, but now infrastructure is in place (and mostly paid off) in case things go sideways again, so there’s less of a risk in buying from Russia. Leasing new aircraft might only happen once they’ve paid off the stolen ones, that’s probably a tough one.
Does anybody really think that they will be able to lease modern civilian aircrafts after the war after having stolen hundreds of them?
They started the war because there was no way for them into Western structures anymore on equal terms. A split and an end to economic relations must have been accepted.
Following the Xi-Putin reunion, the Chinese and Russian governments released a lengthy joint statement declaring a “new era” of multipolarity, proposing a new international political model that will leave behind the unipolar hegemonic order dominated by Washington.
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2022/02/07/china-russia-multipolar-historic-meeting/
That was in 2022 and they just renewed it.
China soon will build their own aircrafts. Russia doesn’t need economic relations with the West.
Russia took the planes, the West will take their bank accounts.
Uh, they could get the fuck out of Ukraine?
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