It’s kind of like this right now, people just haven’t noticed. When the war ends, Russia will be in shambles. They have broken their military might and destroyed the old soviet stockpiles. The black sea fleet does not exist anymore. Their air force is gone. They have no tanks left. They have taken 1.3 million casualties. Nearly all oil refineries were bombed together with a lot of the other oil infrastructure. Key factories are gone. Millions of people have fled the country.
And then there are the things they did at the start of the war: Does anybody really think that they will be able to lease modern civilian aircrafts after the war after having stolen hundreds of them? Will Europe really start to buy russian gas again after having found other suppliers that do not threaten them and having ramped up renewables? Will international companies really go back after having had all their current business stolen?
I’m maybe more pessimistic than you, but I think money overrules ethics in many cases. International companies will go back, their investments will be smaller and more careful, but if there’s profit to be made, they will go. Some European countries will go back to Russian gas too, it’s much cheaper, but now infrastructure is in place (and mostly paid off) in case things go sideways again, so there’s less of a risk in buying from Russia. Leasing new aircraft might only happen once they’ve paid off the stolen ones, that’s probably a tough one.
Does anybody really think that they will be able to lease modern civilian aircrafts after the war after having stolen hundreds of them?
They started the war because there was no way for them into Western structures anymore on equal terms. A split and an end to economic relations must have been accepted.
Following the Xi-Putin reunion, the Chinese and Russian governments released a lengthy joint statement declaring a “new era” of multipolarity, proposing a new international political model that will leave behind the unipolar hegemonic order dominated by Washington.
It’s kind of like this right now, people just haven’t noticed. When the war ends, Russia will be in shambles. They have broken their military might and destroyed the old soviet stockpiles. The black sea fleet does not exist anymore. Their air force is gone. They have no tanks left. They have taken 1.3 million casualties. Nearly all oil refineries were bombed together with a lot of the other oil infrastructure. Key factories are gone. Millions of people have fled the country.
And then there are the things they did at the start of the war: Does anybody really think that they will be able to lease modern civilian aircrafts after the war after having stolen hundreds of them? Will Europe really start to buy russian gas again after having found other suppliers that do not threaten them and having ramped up renewables? Will international companies really go back after having had all their current business stolen?
I’m maybe more pessimistic than you, but I think money overrules ethics in many cases. International companies will go back, their investments will be smaller and more careful, but if there’s profit to be made, they will go. Some European countries will go back to Russian gas too, it’s much cheaper, but now infrastructure is in place (and mostly paid off) in case things go sideways again, so there’s less of a risk in buying from Russia. Leasing new aircraft might only happen once they’ve paid off the stolen ones, that’s probably a tough one.
They started the war because there was no way for them into Western structures anymore on equal terms. A split and an end to economic relations must have been accepted.
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2022/02/07/china-russia-multipolar-historic-meeting/
That was in 2022 and they just renewed it.
China soon will build their own aircrafts. Russia doesn’t need economic relations with the West.
Russia took the planes, the West will take their bank accounts.