- cross-posted to:
- usa@lemmy.ml
- usa@lemmy.ml
- cross-posted to:
- usa@lemmy.ml
- usa@lemmy.ml
You must log in or # to comment.
based S&P
Biased mfs
Who are you calling biased? S&P500? AI companies? AI promoters? Anti-AI crowd? Everyone? I’m looking for useful comments here. Let’s make the most out those data centres storing our posts.
Lol, they got told to fuck off for not being profitable.
ngl if AI dies i hope we get more ethical models, open-weight models (mostly) solve this, but it would be cool if it was trained only on public domain.
That’s not AI dying. That’s just ethical AI… Which should absolutely happen. Same for GMOs
IMHO I’m kinda glad it was trained on all the forum posts I made during what turned out to be the golden age of training data. Now the LLMs sound a little bit like me.
While I love the sentiment; I’m reading this decision by S&P as just about not bending their rules. AI is not thriving fast/convincingly enough to break tradition of big finance; I don’t think that makes S&P an ally. And I suspect this means they’ll just be joining a bit later.
‘A bit later’ is really all the is required to meet the standard. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/tesla-isnt-a-gurantee-for-the-sp-500-even-with-year-of-profits.html
S&P Dow Jones has a history of making companies earn it, including previous Elmo ventures.
I’m not bullish on any of it, and I’m desperately trying to exit AI holdings as swiftly as I’m able, but I am deeply comforted by major indexes requiring companies demonstrate profitability or at least meaningful actual revenue beyond the self-dealing that we’ve seen between the IPO hopefuls.
Not making criteria at the start doesn’t mean AI is dying.
The fact that they tried to get the rules changed so they could get listed on index’s as soon as they IPOd means they’re out of willing creditors and out of cash. They were attempting to dump equity on to 401Ks to pay out the private bag-holders who have been funding them to sell model access at massively discounted rates.
Even if people host models them selves, the era of constant slop deluge is over simply because all the players giving away access for essentially free are about to go belly up or pivot away from it to other business models.
They’re not out of cash or creditors, they just want to build faster. Slowing down is fine, but respecting a speed limit doesn’t mean you’re about to stop.
The data center builders and operators are running behind on basically every data center project, massive amounts of Blackwell are just sitting in warehouses right now because they loose money the moment they’re plugged in. New IT load for the operators isn’t even a third of the capacity of the chips sold to these companies. Most of the companies that got switched over to token billing by the model providers are pulling back and freaking out over a yearly “AI budget” annihilated in a quarter. The model providers wouldn’t have swapped to token based billing for enterprise clients if they didn’t have to. They’ve been pumping demand with hype and by selling at a fraction of operational costs. Reporting non-gap EBITA to hide what a mess the financials are.
The SpaceX S1 alone shows how insanely cash incinerating it all is. Can’t wait to see Anthropic and OpeAIs S1s. It’s gonna be hilarious.
I’m gonna go look it up now, but for those who follow behind me: can you explain what an S1 is?
Edit to add (emphasis mine):
SEC Form S-1 is the initial registration form for new securities required by the SEC for public companies that are based in the U.S. Any security that meets the criteria must have an S-1 filing before shares can be listed on a national exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange. Companies typically file SEC Form S-1 when planning their initial public offering (IPO). SEC Form S-1 requires companies to explain the use of capital, outline their business model and competition, and provide a brief prospectus of the security, including pricing and any dilution of other securities.SEC Form S-1 is also known as the registration statement under the Securities Act of 1933. Additionally, companies must disclose any significant business dealings with directors and outside counsel. Investors can view S-1 filings online to research new offerings before they are issued.
Interesting. You actually have a real answer and explanation. I mean, that’s amazing. My goodness, something actually worth double-checking. 👏
Good. Those clowns will trash the index funds that so many depend on for retirement funding if they tank. And AI certainly will, and SpaceX is dependent on the whims of a drug addicted wingnut.
I’m very curious as to why you and others think AI will “tank”.
I think it will massively correct, like the dotcom bubble for websites. LLMs are a useful utility, but not something that’s going to make economics irrelevant (like people thought about the internet).
Why? LLMs are tools, text models, not AGI magic lamps, and a couple of con artists are trying to convince the world otherwise. That’s an oversimplification, but the jist of it.
And I’m no LLM skeptic. I’ve been playing with ML as a hobby for a decade, with local LLMs before ChatGPT was even available, but the market attitude towards all this is absolutely bonkers. It’s worse than crypto.
I appreciate your mature and common sense reply. This place is nuts! 🤪 😅
AI will definitely stay around, but the current AI hype is a market bubbles waiting to pop, similar to how the dot com bubble burst and we still have the internet.
Many people here say “the AI bubble will pop”, but they never explain why they think so. That’s my question.
You are not interested in the actual answer, troll. You act in bad faith and only seek to suck energy and goodwill from decent people that might think you genuinely want to understand something.
The truth is you either do know and you’re playing dumb, or you lack the basic capacity/attention span/empathy to understand and you’re just blindly defending a “team” you think you belong to. Wake up, you wannabe cybertruck driver… you’re not getting an invite to the yacht, the bunker or the child molestation island.
Well if anyone knows anything, it’s you, right? I mean, you don’t have to explain anything either! Wow, imagine a world where people could actually do that! Thanks for the conversation though. The world is now better off.
By the way, you have a problem: you aren’t allowing for a real question. That fits into something we’ve been hearing about lately, but past attempts to silence me have also failed. Releasing your built-up anger against random me is a waste of your time.
“…but past attempts to silence me have also failed.”
Your comment would look like this as a person.
Megopie gave you a real answer with details hours ago, but you haven’t meaningfully replied to it. Are you sure you’re actually looking for an answer? Or are you looking to feel like you’re correct and that these people don’t know what they’re talking about?
You go around asking people to reply to other people? I guess you got entertained so I’ll take it as a compliment.
from the investment perspective, they’ve been losing a lot of money, and they still don’t have a way to make it back
from the technical perspective, llms probably already reached their peak, and they are still far from reliable in many use cases
also a disaster for the environment and the culture, the growing sentiment is: fuck all thisIf AI uses fossil fuels, it’s a disaster for the environment, but it doesn’t have to use fossil fuels. They’ve been spending more then revenue, but revenue is growing, this is normal for new techs. Reliability depends on expectations. My point here is that from what I see, AI will keep growing, but hopefully slowly enough so people can keep up. I mean, I wouldn’t rely on expecting a crash.
If you look at the SpaceX valuation documents, specifically, they’re relying on orbital data centers, Dyson spheres, and other scifi bullshit to account for a multi-trillion dollar market cap.
Add in that the terms of the IPO afford Musk and his insider friends to dump shares as early as 70 days after launch day.
It isn’t that the companies are bad on their face nearly so much as they’re rigged to implode from within.
Alphaville, at the Financial Times, has been covering these IPOs extensively. Musk’s is arguably the worst, but OpenAI is running a tight second. And Claude is still largely a cash negative endeavor.
They aren’t able to justify their prices.
Found elon.
Where? So what?
Historical precedent.
I never clicked on a link without any title or explanation. Not starting with that one. That’s like using AI to talking to us instead of bothering yourself.
breh
For those that didn’t see the article from yesterday, the relevant rule that they refused to waive was the one that said a company must be profitable.
lol
Lololololol the president of my company went full AI shithead recently and he posted how it was a big deal that they were going public and he was talking about how he see it as a great investment to purchase shares and I asked how it was a great investment to get shares of a company severely in the red and my comment got deleted in a few minutes
Edit: we also got claude code for everyone in the company and they are monitoring token use (as in we need to use a lot) and I asked if they were concerned that the token price would rise if the board of directors of anthropic suddenly wanted to make a profit and that comment also got deleted (this was in a virtual townhall so we can ask stuff, usually they just ignore the ones they don’t want to answer but they were actually deleting them this time)
My last company they didn’t delete messages. That would be to obvious.
“I am sorry we didn’t get around to answering all the questions live. We will respond to the remaining by email”
No more questions were answered.
You know this already but your company management are morons.
is…your company publically traded itself? looking for an easy short
Sounds like they don’t want to go along with these sham corporations and their smoke & mirrors accounting. It’s like they want the companies in their index to be on sound financial footing or something.
Loooooseeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrs! Demanding fiscal accountability. HA!
The very idea!
I didn’t know that the SNP500 had such rules, but I’m so happy they didn’t cave.
I hope people sue the indexes for changing the rules. Im not sure its possible but it really makes an index meaningless if its not consistent.
Nasdaq and Russel caved though. I don’t know if there is a way to avoid them in our 401k.
You should have the ability to select the investments in your 401k.
I mean, every company I participated in just give a menu of 20 or 40 mutual funds, targeting different maturation points or Industries, and people absolutely are allowed to pick which funds they want their 401K allocated into. It’s just going to require an additional 10 minutes of searching to find out how much AI diaper load is riding in your preferred funds, and possibly having to forgo growth funds and total index funds for some number of seasons.
Personally, I just moved to roughly 40% in Int’l funds despite ASML and TSMC being featured prominently, because it is still a net reduction in exposure and because I need the diversification (~10% a S&P 500’ value is directly exposed either AI or semiconductor, and roughly 33% of S&P 500 is straight Tech of some flavor).
We had a zoom meeting with my elderly mother’s investment adviser recently and expressed our concern about the AI bubble. He of course said he didn’t think it was a bubble; his main argument was “these CEOs are smart people and they’re legally obligated to preserve the financial health of their companies so they wouldn’t be going in for anything that had the potential to be a bubble”. Conveniently ignoring all the other bubbles in history when the CEOs were “smart people”.
Ah, yes, is this a portrait of her advisor?
Ah yes, Raymond gripping hands with James.
Completely unrelated, if you have chickens I hope they are doing splendidly.
World needs a lot more backyard chickens.
I actually just went hella heavy on Int’l and value stocks, in order to completely divest from Musk exposure in my retirement accounts.
Which muskless and ai-less indexes u found? I’m working on the same
VTV is value stocks, so minimal exposure. AND Vanguard Healthcare fund has often had consistent performance across Market Cycles. I haven’t yet found an anti AI portfolio.
I’m looking ex-us for my growth and blended strategies. VXUS and VEA principally.
Every 401k I and my wife have had let us set which index, but would rebalance itself every year because they believe they know better. It’s really annoying, but if you’re familiar with the markets, I would say it’s very necessary. Especially since the default funds will often have fees associated to them.
Excellent! Fuck Musk.
And while I’m not an AI hater, that is 100% the investors trying to cash out before the industry runs into trouble.
Yeah, it really is painfully obvious that the fatcats are trying to cash out on the bubble before it blows.
Has the S&P bent this rule before?
Orrrr its literally baked into the definition of what it means to be on the S&P.
I think you might have missed the original story. There was some fuckery going on with changes to the rules of what does and doesn’t get listed at IPO, seemingly designed to force the stock to (be allowed to) launch at a nonsensically high value on the indices, in turn forcing the least gamble-minded investors (which includes a fuckload of normal people via pensions, insurance schemes etc) into becoming bag holders for the most transparently greedy rug pull of all time.
I live eight thousand kilometers from the US, and have no vestigial belief in capitalism, and this made me sell my US index funds this week. What an irresponsible shitshow even if you believe in nothing besides capital, even if you are a true believer in this system.
The definition of being listed on any index isn’t waiting for someone to announce “I want each share to be worth ten trillion dollars! Actually no, eleventy billion dollars!” and taking that at face value. That’s why this is news. It’s not Mr Standard and Mr Poor sitting in an office and deciding they don’t like the stock.
You explained that very well. That was exactly what was in my mind when I posted that. Thank you!
They didn’t block them, they just won’t buy it until it has been on the market for a while
I’ve already withdrawn money I had invested in US.
You can’t convince me this isn’t bubble:
where do you put your money that is safe though
even eu will take a hit
If the US gets hit, everywhere gets hit. It’s true, but the further you are from the epicentre the better off you’ll be. Europe doesn’t have AI companies anywhere near the scale of the US, and they’ve been trying to divest themselves from American big tech because of Trump.
Investing in Asian stocks would probably be even better in some ways, but the RAM and flash price collapse that’s probably coming off the back of the US AI pop will hit them hard.
IMHO what matters is the fundamentals, not technical analysis. Iff they had a breakthrough technology that was actually profitable, then I could believe a chart like that.
Here’s an even more interesting one:
It’s the P/E ratio (the ration between the stock Price of a company and it’s Earnings) of the Nasdaq vs the Price.
Notice how the Nasdaq price has tracked the P/E, with since at least 2020 the stock prices not increasing because company earnings are going up but rather just from increased speculation hence the rise in the ratio of stock Prices to Earnings.
The P/E (in other words, the company stock prices relative to the actual money a company makes) is now about twice as much as back in 2020.
Wow that’s a pretty wild statistic here. Is there historical precedent for this?
S&P 500 PE Ratio hit 120 in 2008, but thats because earnings collapsed.
The main issue as usual is US hegemony (or what’s left of it) has a way of fucking up the rest of the world. When that bubble pops it’s going to cause a whole bunch of industries trouble.
Hence why there is frantic effort in decoupling from USA and connecting with alternative markets in the rest of the world.
This is why I rebalanced into more international stock. The non-US indices have been doing very well for the past year or two.
US indices are obviously doing well too, but it’s looking like the trend of stagnant international stock growth is over.
Yeah fucking finally too!
Every fucking american crisis bleeds into our countries every goddamn time, but they? Let’s do worse next time!! No regulation!! War!!
Aaaahrg.
/Rant off
That wasn’t much of a rant, just normal extremely valid frustration in my opinion.
Yup I moved mostly out of usd, no stocks listed in the US, no US Treasuries.
I see either default or massive inflation or both in the cards for the US very soon.
Moving your money to overseas markets isn’t going to protect it. Other countries are having similar liquidity and bond issues. When the bubble bursts it’s going to be world wide.
Also fundamentals don’t mean shit when the bubble pops. Everything will come crashing down because everyone is panicking and knows that everyone else is also panicking. It will have a domino effect and even markets that aren’t even part of the bubble will get hit.
Agreed, but they shouldn’t tank as bad and businesses with healthy profits and a history of dividends should bounce back quickly.
It’s just not worth paying capital gains to pull it out of the market.
Yea I don’t know why people think that this AI bubble is just in the USA, this is a global race, not just a US thing.
I’m still invested in some US stocks, but I’m switching my US market exposure to an index fund that weights by actual sales, revenue, and other objective factors, rather than market cap. Companies don’t even get into the index unless they turn a profit first.
Which index is that?
I’m curious as well!
pls share
“Very soon” that’s what’s been said for years now. I too think this isn’t sustainable, but it sure feels like it’ll keep rolling for a number of years.
“markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.”
Yup I’m definitely foregoing upside but I don’t want to be stressing about trying to find the best time to exit every day.
Can still make plenty of money in non-US index funds.
Though I must say, my EM Asia ETF blew up right in my face. Somewhat softened by the fact that I figured it was going to peak and sold at 61 EUR to rebuy more at 59. It just happened to drop further after holding near 59 for a while. But at least I skipped out on two euros worth of price drop AND bought more shares than I originally had.
One of the two things I have left in US-run ETF companies is, ironically, my lovely WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 3x daily short which went up a ton on Friday though. I’m predicting it’ll go up even more when SpaceX is admitted into the index lol
Yup. Highest it’s ever been and there’s no explanation as to why. Not a sensible one anyway, given most are in the shit.
Is it because for every american their only choice to get any retirement or any interest on savings is to put it into stocks? Followed by massive speculation that maybe (I dont know this part) is driven by machine code that not only follows trends but creates them by thinking if everyone is investing and line goes up, maybe this is where the money should go, which reaffirms the algorithm. Until it doesn’t.
Surely these two things are a factor. That and companies continually laying people off, or cutting costs, or selling data which give the illusion of making money when really it’s just juggling the books and has no long term future.
It’s because they keep printing more and more dollars and issuing debt, those extra printed dollars have to go somewhere and they buy more stocks with it.
https://en.macromicro.me/charts/28906/SPX500-Index-vs-Dollar-Index
People/mainstream media just assume stock market goes up means the companies are more valuable – for the past year or so it really just means the dollar has been going down aka inflation
Sure there is. It’s a pyramid scheme. It’ll work until it doesn’t. The people involved are just really good at moving assets around to give the illusion that line keep going up. To keep it growing they move assets from other safer markets (pensions to 401ks for example) and have lobbied to not be taxed or regulated so more and more capital gets dumped in. But stocks aren’t tied to anything more tangible then trust of the people holding the stocks. So long as the stock holders believe stocks are valuable they are. But like any good pyramid scheme eventually they will run out of suckers to bleed for cash and then BAM pyramid fall down.
It is even more extreme if you view the entire index history. The Covid peak looks almost benign in comparison and that was quite substantial but with a rather slow in rise and fall. Now, since the LLM bubble has been started, NASDAQ has almost doubled and in recent months almost feverishly. Nah, no bubble, nothing to see here, all based on reality. Please invest, we need to unload the bad money onto someone else.
Tf happened in Spring 26?
We launched attacks on Iran to distract from the Epstein files, leading to the closure of the strait of Hormuz and dwindling oil reserves around the world. It was only like 3 months ago, I’m surprised you didn’t hear about this
Of course I heard. Last I checked war and oil shortages weren’t good for the economy
US Tariffs on everything, feels like a lifetime ago already doesn’t it?
Wasn’t that 25? And again bad for economics.
Yep, me being dumb! I thought you were talking about the dip before.
What you’re looking at returns on US stocks in Indian Rupees. So the sharp rise is US stocks going high + Indian Rupee deprecating against USD so earlier investments providing higher returns.
Motilal Oswal is a fund house:
https://www.motilaloswalmf.com/mutual-funds/motilal-oswal-nasdaq-100-fund-of-fund
It is a bubble, but ……
- a bubble is a great place to make huge gains …… as long as you get out in time
- usually a few companies survive the bubble pop. Their stock price baby also crashes but then recovers to “normal” valuation
I sit out bubbles because I recognize them but know I never know how to get out in time. But I do know some who succeed in riding the wave while still coming out the other side
I’ve pulled most of my money out of stocks stuck it in bonds. I have a few dividend ETFs like SCHD and some oil and energy sector stocks that I bought on the cheap before Trump fucked the oil markets.
It’s a giant bubble but there are sectors you can sit in defensively.
IMO the Space X and AI offerings are going to hoover up any liquidity left in a market that is showing less and less breath. Energy shortages will kill by July/August.
I went 30% into international funds after the first recovery from Donald’s tariffs in spring 2025, when it became abundantly clear that our former trading partners were all hammering out new trade agreements. (Which take 1.5 - 2 years to take effect, but eventually they will and it’ll affect the US adversely.)
Been meaning to rebalance into money markets and bonds with how crazy this year’s been. This just makes me want to do that faster.
Fatwa all those godawful techbros.
The only thing I’m gonna try investing in from this AI shitshow is China’s CXMT RAM since they have a good chance of shanking both Nvidia and the RAM thug monopoly lol.
Asset allocation funds might still include it. Your Vanguards and BlackRocks.
The very broad funds definitely will - VTI/VTSAX - but at lower weights and under less time pressure than the rigid index funds (VOO/VFIAX). That takes off a lot of the liquidity squeeze and (presumably) reduces their loss.
But you have to remember that people who use these funds intentionally invest in obvious losers and willingly overpay for hyped stocks because they believe, in the long run, that buying obvious losers is more than balanced by also buying the unexpected winners.
SpaceX is just the first time an oligarch tried so obviously to rig the passive investor structure to his favor, and I’m glad the S&P people didn’t cave.
This is good to hear.
The popular Vanguard ETFs will definitely have it, they do track CRSP and FTSE Russell (VT and VTI for example) - Both of which adopted fast track rules that will allow SpaceX to become eligible 5 days after the IPO. Unless Vanguard themselves decide not to include it in their portfolios (seems unlikely but you never know). I think Vanguard does have some funds specific to tracking S&P but that’s not usually what people use Vanguard for.
e.g.
https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/elon-musk-spacex-ipo-crsp-vti-ftse-russell-nasdaq-401k
That could lead to some interesting outcomes, how these funds look in 12 months could indeed be tied to which specific index(s) they are tracking.
You mean Vanguard and Blackrock ETF?
I’m not the most financially savvy person, but I’m wondering if they’ll pass based on fiduciary duty rules. It would be pretty tough to prove violation for something like this, but the question is whether or not they even want to open themselves up to the possibility. I guess it depends on how close they think the bubble is to bursting and if they think they can justify the risk with potential earnings
Might? Also, when other Ai companies are already counted in the S&P or would be redundant.
Good.
Oh thank god
Hmmm. Good for them.
Of course, I dumped the S&P 500 awhile back, to eliminate my exposure to the rest of the tech bubble (Amazon, Microsoft and friends betting hard on enshittification), anyway.
So this was both too little and too late, for me.
