I’m @froztbyte more or less everywhere that matters

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  • 447 Comments
Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • furthering my previous guessing that there’s likely only appetite for 2, maybe 3, of these ridiculous IPOs, a number of analyst notes have started kicking around and they’re getting progressively more realistic in their outlook. saw this one this morning

    Red Flag #3: The IPO is Exit Liquidity, Not Growth Capital

    To justify a $2 trillion valuation, our model shows that Anthropic would have to:
     • immediately improve NOPAT margin to 10% and sustain it for the next 10 years (compared to -175% reported operating margin in 2025),
     • grow revenue by 1000% in 2026 and 100% in 2027, and
     • grow revenue 56% compounded annually from 2028-2035.
    

    sounds ambitious. sure hope they don’t have any material risks and systematic exposures that make that harder!

    In this scenario, Anthropic’s
    1. revenue would reach $3.6 trillion (compared to $4.6 billion in 2025), which is 1.4x the combined TTM
    revenue of Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), and Oracle (ORCL).
    2. NOPAT would reach $358 billion in 2035, compared to the company’s -$8 billion reported operating loss in 2025. For reference, $358 billion is 2.0x NVIDIA’s $184 billion and 2.6x Apple’s $136 billion in TTM NOPAT.
    

    good thing the cost of inference is going down! sure, qwen3.8-27b is already stale and everyone needs to throw another couple hundred million at another training update, but the cost of inference! /s












  • I’d seen that link and didn’t even go looking, but wow this is way worse that I would’ve expected

    it’s been a while since I last looked (I usually just deploy whatever network I need) but iirc even the typical desktop config distributions of qemu-kvm are a macvtap or link+nat setup

    It then detected I run my host kernel with mitigations=off

    I wonder if this person even thought to run a nessus/openvas/whatever scan against the same machine

    also, quite seriously, what fucking clowning is this to have this be some ā€œI slapped together a test on my desktopā€ rather than having a lab bench? is it too hard and costly for trail of bits employees to afford a 1u they can pxeboot for experiments? wild

    The standard approach for QEMU is to either wire up a TUN/TAP interface or to use passt.

    (e: adding)

    The standard approach for QEMU is to either wire up a TUN/TAP interface or to use passt.

    other typical modes are bridged (e.g. having various vlans available as bridges and then managing vm exposure to vlan by interface attachment), direct interface assignment (hw offload to the guest)

    passt is also commonly used for podman, and it’s moooostly userspace[0] IP and no real good l2 options

    1. I had an absolute rager[2] of a time figuring out how to make n-many podman containers[3] spin up into an assortment of vlans for realtime multi-vlan testing
    2. of the graaaargh kind
    3. don’t do containers, kids. they’re bad for your health

    (I’m only half joking. it’s stunning how badly container-management software and tooling all suck)