

Betteridgeās reigns supreme
Iām @froztbyte more or less everywhere that matters


Betteridgeās reigns supreme


a nsfw to start wednesday, what if the billionaires all suddenly exploded


this is the same company that has attempted other ways of addicting their employees, for āproductivityā


ijlth: quantum


I follow a couple (like, 2~3) of fiber arts people and that was about the impression I got too, itās blown up with that much spill


furthering my previous guessing that thereās likely only appetite for 2, maybe 3, of these ridiculous IPOs, a number of analyst notes have started kicking around and theyāre getting progressively more realistic in their outlook. saw this one this morning
Red Flag #3: The IPO is Exit Liquidity, Not Growth Capital
To justify a $2 trillion valuation, our model shows that Anthropic would have to:
⢠immediately improve NOPAT margin to 10% and sustain it for the next 10 years (compared to -175% reported operating margin in 2025),
⢠grow revenue by 1000% in 2026 and 100% in 2027, and
⢠grow revenue 56% compounded annually from 2028-2035.
sounds ambitious. sure hope they donāt have any material risks and systematic exposures that make that harder!
In this scenario, Anthropicās
1. revenue would reach $3.6 trillion (compared to $4.6 billion in 2025), which is 1.4x the combined TTM
revenue of Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta (META), and Oracle (ORCL).
2. NOPAT would reach $358 billion in 2035, compared to the companyās -$8 billion reported operating loss in 2025. For reference, $358 billion is 2.0x NVIDIAās $184 billion and 2.6x Appleās $136 billion in TTM NOPAT.
good thing the cost of inference is going down! sure, qwen3.8-27b is already stale and everyone needs to throw another couple hundred million at another training update, but the cost of inference! /s


personally I feel like all this shit is a continuation/outgrowth from the crypto āwhitepaperā phenomenon: ~zero substantive engagement with the actual discipline in question, and āwork productā (quotes intentional) equal to some claims with a āproofā thrown out as its defense
(it also continues to be part of a cultural and knowledge DDoS, which others have written better on)


cool fun new totally fine AI use: extortion


but, who the hell gave them $100k for this?
the third name is a vc-type, and I bet it wonāt take much scratching to find that linked to our good friends and the ongoing public image adjustment campaign thatās seeing funding from a few corners


I remember this showing up here a while back


I donāt get the second one


āmuskinā the truthā ā ākirkinā the kobayashi maruā


a great sneer found in the wild:

twitter screenshot
part one is a post by Steve Yegge (@Steve_Yegge), reads: āThis is going to come off as grumpy, but it needs to be said: Stop showing people your junk. Everyone can build junk with Al now. Nobody else wants to see your junk. Weāre not kindred spirits just because we both build junk. Play with your junk strictly in private. Thank you.ā
part two is a reply by kitze āļøtinkerer.club (@thekitze), reads: ācounterpoint: ā, showing a link card that points at Yeggeās Gas Town post


the one titled āinterestingā (archive) also smells


idly, I do wonder how well an ocr-only clodjeepeetea would work. every time I look in on all these āagent sessionā tools they appear to be a very mech turk thing of a phenomenal bit of hidden state, and a tiny little bit of visible distraction. feels like ocr-only might break a bunch of the usual tricks that are used to build on for the shiny demo


the networking part is fine (I do a looooot of networking), but the software quality and choices (esp with containers) is just extremely meh
re the gapping, eh, there are ways. just off the top of my head: rig up the serial console, screen+camera and usb keyboard signalling (which you can data diode on transmission later via usbnet). and thatās before you go for esoteric side channels and utter silliness
but āI turned off spectre and friends mitigationā is just some extremely funny shit


Iād seen that link and didnāt even go looking, but wow this is way worse that I wouldāve expected
itās been a while since I last looked (I usually just deploy whatever network I need) but iirc even the typical desktop config distributions of qemu-kvm are a macvtap or link+nat setup
It then detected I run my host kernel with
mitigations=off
I wonder if this person even thought to run a nessus/openvas/whatever scan against the same machine
also, quite seriously, what fucking clowning is this to have this be some āI slapped together a test on my desktopā rather than having a lab bench? is it too hard and costly for trail of bits employees to afford a 1u they can pxeboot for experiments? wild
The standard approach for QEMU is to either wire up a TUN/TAP interface or to use passt.
(e: adding)
The standard approach for QEMU is to either wire up a TUN/TAP interface or to use passt.
other typical modes are bridged (e.g. having various vlans available as bridges and then managing vm exposure to vlan by interface attachment), direct interface assignment (hw offload to the guest)
passt is also commonly used for podman, and itās moooostly userspace[0] IP and no real good l2 options
(Iām only half joking. itās stunning how badly container-management software and tooling all suck)


I propose: āautorowlingā
what in the fuck
and I presume the answers default to
yes