• grue@lemmy.world
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    2 days ago

    The real question is, why are the people making the predictions so consistently unable to spot the trend? It’s almost as if they’re somehow incentivized to be pessimistic about it.

    • cynar@lemmy.world
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      1 day ago

      There’s also the fact that most industries have a natural saturation point. Most of the predictions used current numbers to calculate it. The numbers changed with production however. The saturation point slid away as fast as production shot up. Economists know this can’t keep up, and tend to be conservative in their estimates, so they were that this won’t keep happening for much longer.

      Basically humans aren’t good with exponential growth predictions. They have a tendency to run away in apparently absurd ways. You don’t need deliberate conspiracies to create this effect.